Scary Movie 3 - @ INTERTOPS!

[Gillian]

Hey,

Scary Movie 3 is up at Intertops. I think these sportsbooks have been totally sucked into the hype. It's going to do good, no doubt... but 40 million is f-cken over-hype. Big Time over hype. I'm taken the 26 million to 35.9 million for a nice +130 before the buzz comes back that this movie isn't going that high and everyone nails it, dropping the odds.

Lee's box office info has been pretty sharp lately, and he's predicting 33.3 million - but he's always a few million over. So...

My pick: 26 million to 35.9 million for +130 @ Intertops.

And under 40 million for sure.

 

[Oren1]

Hey Gil, I'm staying away from Scary Movie 3 this weekend, it can possibnly go over 40 million but I doubt it will, but it's got a shot so I'm not risking it. I might actually bet on the over if you made me pick a side. good luck.

 

[Gillian]

I still think 26 million to 35.9 million for +130 at Intertops is still a good call. Under 25.9 million for +850 would be a nice payoff, but I doubt it... hmm. I'm gonna go with Lee this week and say 33 million... I'll take the +130 odds at Itops

 

[Gillian]

Holy smokes... I think someone knows something I don't... Intertops' line for 25.9 million or less started out at +850, and has been getting nailed with the odds now at +600. Maybe this movie isn't going to do over 26 million. Actually, it's very possible it could pull in 24-25 million. The second one did only 20 million. I might put some cash on it for the value... but I'm still going with my first prediction: 32-33 million. But ya gotta like +600. Can you imagine? I'd freak if I missed out on that payback.

 

[Oren1]

I'd have to say that anyone that puts money on that Intertops under for Scary Movie is just throwing their money away. But I suppose 25 million isn't impossible. I'd be less surprised to see it hit 45 million is all.

 

[Gillian]

Hmmm. Not sure. It's been getting a lot of action. A lot. I like 33 million still... but some money on 26 million and under (just incase)

 

[Oren1]

they could have shifted their lines because a different bracket was getting hit. Don' see why anyone would hit this under besides in a vain attempt to get a huge payoff. Ain't gonna happen.

 

[Gillian]

The buzz chart doesn't show much for Scary Movie. Not much at all. 30 million.

 

[Oren1]

yeah I don't know, I think it will definiteyl do more than the buzz number indicates, but probably not more than 40 million, I think... not sure though. I'd say 39 million right now...

 

[Oren1]

the thing I can't figure out about htis film is the mediocre buzz score, the very good ranking on Moviefone, and the fact that it's not even registering on the Yahoo movie chart. So you've got a very good indicator, a decent indicator which would indicate around I don't know 30-35 million, and then another chart that would seem to indicate under 30 million. The early #1 rank at moviefone is something we havent's seen since the summerblockbusters were lighting up the charts, so maybe 50 million isn't out of reach?

Hahah no way since the first one only did 42 million, although that one was rated R. Then you've got the fact that it's opening on 3500 theaters. flip a coin, I guess, even though it would seem that under 40 is the way to go, it could pull a Pirates of the Carribean and go way over what the buzz would indicate. The message board for this one at MSN movies is filled with threads as well, which also points to anticipation. Looks that messsage board has been gettting a bit more traffic than Texas Chainsaw Massacre did.

 

[Oren1]

you can get a decent price for th over 40 million now, I don't know but I think it might go over, I know I said 39 million but.... I think it's buzz score is similar to what Charlies Angels 2 was and this one might draw even more than that movie so 43 million doesn't seem too far fetched. Charlies Angels 2 made somthing like 38 million.

[This message was edited by Oren1 on October 23, 2003 at 08:47 PM.]

 

[Gillian]

Nah, nope, forget it, not a chance... I don't see it going over 43 million. Too high.

 

[Oren1]

o.k. maybe you're right... it' buzz didn't go up very much today, not enough to definitely indicate a +40 million opening. that 40 million could end up being a pretty sharp number. but what about moviefone dawg? heh.

 

[Gillian]

True. Never seen it that high before so early in Oct. It could actually pull a Bruce Almighty on us and do 45 million. I think it looks better than the first two.

 

[JamesTrout]

Holy shit! $18.5 million just for Friday?!

It's gonna blow past $40 million at this rate! That PG-13 certificate probably helped a lot though.

 

[Gillian]

There is no doubt about it. Pg-13 and a great trailer. New stars. It's all good. This has been a GREAT month for me at the box office. Yeaaaahhhhh babbbby!!!!!

 

[Oren1]

 

[Gillian]

Scary Movie kicks ass!!! 49 million!

 

[Gillian]

The buzz chart is TOTALLY NOT reliable.

 

[Oren1]

well, it was way too high for Kill Bill, a little high for Texas Chainsaw Massacre, and way too low for Scary Movie 3... It can still be useful though, just not reliable. Right now all three Matrix films are in the top 13, but they still don't add up to what the numbers were pre-Reloaded. Wonder what they're expecting Revolutions to gross. I see a couple of bombs coming up next week but I'm sure the linesmakers have smelled them out as well...